Wii Success May Lead to Cheaper Next-Gen

Hey it's been a while since I've posted. I've been very busy. Yet I could not resist revisiting an old friend. Yes the crystal ball industry talks and trends. My girls friend keeps an ear to fashion trends and every thing of silicon and code is my domain! So here we go!

Sovieto said:
great, you sold 2 familiys on the wii, ive sold a couple million myself on it too. but once they get it do you think they really play it actively? did you let them have their fun with carnival games and wii sports and they were left thinking it was so fun? how long does that fun last?

you know, ever since the week after i bought a wii on its launch date i realized...
the wii is like a trampoline, its really fun once you get it!!!!! its sooo fun! you think theres nothing better. then after a week or 2 it kinda gets boring, you go on it once in awhile. then your friends come over! oh boy! your friends and you play on the trampoline like its the best thing ever and your friends leave wishing they had a trampoline too. this happens over and over. then soon, you hardly touch the trampoline, your friends still thinks its great but when they come over youre like: nahhh, lets do something else.

and i know i wasnt the only one this happened to, not by a long shot. i dont expect anyone to be like: oh yes sovieto, youre right... it is like a trampoline and i hardly play it anymore!
i just want people to read this, let it sink in, let them know, whether they admit it or not, this is the truth. YES. i am confident this is how it goes, because it has happened to every single person i know personally who owns a wii.


i read like the first 3 sentences, then i fell over your wall and broke my eye. read the paragraph above this.


LOL Nice post yet it's no trampoline at all. How many trampoline are hard to beat or let you play other types of out door equipment at a consolidated price? I understand fully where you are coming from yet the Wii exists because of gaming period. It is the true extension of gaming right now. It effectively connects the new with the past and doesn't over charge you for it. Please $250 is a drop in the bucket plus too it is not using off the shelf parts so don't go there. It may not be a lot faster than the GC but its inline with what we will get from PC tech. For years it's been 2-50% increases in performance. The only way to change this is to break the pricing model of what people will pay for a console. Plus trampolines are way over priced sort of like blue ray players or paid live accounts.

I understand that you feel that the HD systems are the next evolution of gaming but they are not they are only standing in for PC games with a cross pollination of real gaming. The PS3 is the greatest example of the pollination and the xbox 360 is the greatest example of a console trying to be a PC. With the change in price developers and gamers are still waiting for the well off gamers to make these systems affordable. The mere fact that these systems where created to be media room hubs rather than game consoles first was where they lots their way. A real media room approach 20-50K easily and bose audio is at the low end of what type of speaker you use for this type of room. Most gamers can not afford this and it's hard to swallow. Hell it's hard to keep up with PC upgrades and these console are floating right at the same price as perium graphics cards. It may make them money in the long run but as a real gamer I STILL can afford a really really nice PC. Hell I just got finish building a quad core duo with 8 gigs of ram! Their is no way in hell the HD systems can compete with what I just built. The simple fact that the Wii is fun enough to pull me away from this beast says a lot to me every day. Really I'm loving vista after my tweaks hell it only uses 400 megs of 8 gigs at idle! Graphics not a problem as I actually play lots of PC games. Yes i dual boot but that besides the point. Crysis and HD gaming have a lot in common. COD crushes halo and UT at the same time. These are PC gamers period...LOL

Notice how PC game sales have actually went into the HD console market. Go to any HD console forum and you will find fans that have a HD console or a great current PC. The ones that got a HD console did so because they could not really keep up with all the new tech. Judging what to get is very hard to do for people that have been feed what to like since the PS brand arrived. HD consoles are the stand in for PC games this gen until the 8800 reaches sub $100 and core quads are sub $100. Just thing this is going to happen really soon. 8800 are around $250 in best buy not OEM PC shops! If you look hard enough you can get 8 gigs of ram for around $500 USD.

Ok you don't want to spend money on that stuff so why call the Wii a trampoline? Listen to HD console owners is like listening to console owners of the 16 bit age turn into rich PC builders over night. This conversation has been going on for ever yet the pure consoles have always won. The Wii actually exposes why this is the case. In the past you could have gotten wing commander or some thing yet it was not as fun as star fox for some reason or even the old school after burner!

The so called hardcore are having a hard time understanding that they are now PC gamers with consoles. I think MS and Sony know this. I mean what did you think MS is doing in this space? Charging for online makes lots of sense if you are a new comer to PC games right. I've been playing quake 3 since like 2001 thats like 7 years and I've been online with the PC for way longer than that...LOL imagine that bill along with paying for a nice online solution.

The problems that PC games had where the fact they they attracted elitism to the platform. it's this closed mindedness that actualy can kill a platform. Imagine if epic was still a PC only developer. UT3 would have shut the company down, well maybe not but moral would have been hit hard. Fanboys of the past where nothing compared to what we currently have. Maybe they have always been like this yet the numbers have grown and they pretty much believe that every thing in the past is truly inferior which is a very bad thing for gaming in general. These guys are actually acting out same reason why they don't want casuals in gaming in every post online. You can make a list almost. 2d sucks, different not 3d sucks must be like doom in some way etc FPS or have realism. Just look how WOW, RTS and FPS have dominated that market. These where all created for the PC market and FPS is the first to go pop-CONsole. Then you have a blend of new gen stuff that almost has nothing to do with the old school except for the name of the sequel.

What is funny is nintendo is the only company that truly does stick to gaming. Even Wii fit is going to work because of it's game like motivations of trying to better your last attempt. You see what I just did there better yet what they have done? Yeah thats called replay value. Yes you may not play Wii play or sports any more yet that game does have replay value for people who have not mastered which would be those new to gaming. Those games where made to get every one playing. That is not what the Wii is about.
Brawl, etc and Wii fit etc represent what the Wii is doing. The hardcore that nintendo is going for are guys like me. We have an black berrys and Iphone really nice PCs and even HD tvs. We could easily get a HD console yet we are hardcore gamers which means we would buy a arcade neo geo old school system for our room or even a taito type 2x which actually turns out to be a PC to play a game that has the game play that we want. I have a really nice SD card back up of every hardcore game worth getting on the Wii VC and tons of stuff I play because YOU can not beat it...LOL Yet I love playing these old games still. Then I have the new stuff on the Wii and I played every thing on the HD consoles almost thanks to my friends trying to get me to jump into HD gaming...LOL Still I'd rather get a next graphic card for PC rather than getting an HD console. I mean really if I'm going to get a console I really want to play it rather than wait for my type of game to come out. Yet once HD games start giving me pre-PS console goodness I will get one. So basically I'm still waiting even though there are some games out there that I'm watching very closely.

Seriously If you grew up with arcades before even the street fighter 2 days than you would know that the Wii is more of and arcade power house rather than a trampoline. Case and point the Wii is the reason why the arcades in japan are shutting down! The Wii is what gaming is while HD console are still waiting to figure out what they are. Since you like trampolines then I would have to say HD consoles reminds me of hi resolution trampoline pictures on a PC. Fun to look at but not much else right now.

After all of this I do realize the value HD consoles hold for those who own them. It's similar to how mac owners fell about their PCs. Like mac owners they are very vocal about their underdog platform.
 
WiitnessID said:
Hey it's been a while since I've posted. I've been very busy. Yet I could not resist revisiting an old friend. Yes the crystal ball industry talks and trends. My girls friend keeps an ear to fashion trends and every thing of silicon and code is my domain! So here we go!




LOL Nice post yet it's no trampoline at all. How many trampoline are hard to beat or let you play other types of out door equipment at a consolidated price? I understand fully where you are coming from yet the Wii exists because of gaming period. It is the true extension of gaming right now. It effectively connects the new with the past and doesn't over charge you for it. Please $250 is a drop in the bucket plus too it is not using off the shelf parts so don't go there. It may not be a lot faster than the GC but its inline with what we will get from PC tech. For years it's been 2-50% increases in performance. The only way to change this is to break the pricing model of what people will pay for a console. Plus trampolines are way over priced sort of like blue ray players or paid live accounts.

I understand that you feel that the HD systems are the next evolution of gaming but they are not they are only standing in for PC games with a cross pollination of real gaming. The PS3 is the greatest example of the pollination and the xbox 360 is the greatest example of a console trying to be a PC. With the change in price developers and gamers are still waiting for the well off gamers to make these systems affordable. The mere fact that these systems where created to be media room hubs rather than game consoles first was where they lots their way. A real media room approach 20-50K easily and bose audio is at the low end of what type of speaker you use for this type of room. Most gamers can not afford this and it's hard to swallow. Hell it's hard to keep up with PC upgrades and these console are floating right at the same price as perium graphics cards. It may make them money in the long run but as a real gamer I STILL can afford a really really nice PC. Hell I just got finish building a quad core duo with 8 gigs of ram! Their is no way in hell the HD systems can compete with what I just built. The simple fact that the Wii is fun enough to pull me away from this beast says a lot to me every day. Really I'm loving vista after my tweaks hell it only uses 400 megs of 8 gigs at idle! Graphics not a problem as I actually play lots of PC games. Yes i dual boot but that besides the point. Crysis and HD gaming have a lot in common. COD crushes halo and UT at the same time. These are PC gamers period...LOL

Notice how PC game sales have actually went into the HD console market. Go to any HD console forum and you will find fans that have a HD console or a great current PC. The ones that got a HD console did so because they could not really keep up with all the new tech. Judging what to get is very hard to do for people that have been feed what to like since the PS brand arrived. HD consoles are the stand in for PC games this gen until the 8800 reaches sub $100 and core quads are sub $100. Just thing this is going to happen really soon. 8800 are around $250 in best buy not OEM PC shops! If you look hard enough you can get 8 gigs of ram for around $500 USD.

Ok you don't want to spend money on that stuff so why call the Wii a trampoline? Listen to HD console owners is like listening to console owners of the 16 bit age turn into rich PC builders over night. This conversation has been going on for ever yet the pure consoles have always won. The Wii actually exposes why this is the case. In the past you could have gotten wing commander or some thing yet it was not as fun as star fox for some reason or even the old school after burner!

The so called hardcore are having a hard time understanding that they are now PC gamers with consoles. I think MS and Sony know this. I mean what did you think MS is doing in this space? Charging for online makes lots of sense if you are a new comer to PC games right. I've been playing quake 3 since like 2001 thats like 7 years and I've been online with the PC for way longer than that...LOL imagine that bill along with paying for a nice online solution.

The problems that PC games had where the fact they they attracted elitism to the platform. it's this closed mindedness that actualy can kill a platform. Imagine if epic was still a PC only developer. UT3 would have shut the company down, well maybe not but moral would have been hit hard. Fanboys of the past where nothing compared to what we currently have. Maybe they have always been like this yet the numbers have grown and they pretty much believe that every thing in the past is truly inferior which is a very bad thing for gaming in general. These guys are actually acting out same reason why they don't want casuals in gaming in every post online. You can make a list almost. 2d sucks, different not 3d sucks must be like doom in some way etc FPS or have realism. Just look how WOW, RTS and FPS have dominated that market. These where all created for the PC market and FPS is the first to go pop-CONsole. Then you have a blend of new gen stuff that almost has nothing to do with the old school except for the name of the sequel.

What is funny is nintendo is the only company that truly does stick to gaming. Even Wii fit is going to work because of it's game like motivations of trying to better your last attempt. You see what I just did there better yet what they have done? Yeah thats called replay value. Yes you may not play Wii play or sports any more yet that game does have replay value for people who have not mastered which would be those new to gaming. Those games where made to get every one playing. That is not what the Wii is about.
Brawl, etc and Wii fit etc represent what the Wii is doing. The hardcore that nintendo is going for are guys like me. We have an black berrys and Iphone really nice PCs and even HD tvs. We could easily get a HD console yet we are hardcore gamers which means we would buy a arcade neo geo old school system for our room or even a taito type 2x which actually turns out to be a PC to play a game that has the game play that we want. I have a really nice SD card back up of every hardcore game worth getting on the Wii VC and tons of stuff I play because YOU can not beat it...LOL Yet I love playing these old games still. Then I have the new stuff on the Wii and I played every thing on the HD consoles almost thanks to my friends trying to get me to jump into HD gaming...LOL Still I'd rather get a next graphic card for PC rather than getting an HD console. I mean really if I'm going to get a console I really want to play it rather than wait for my type of game to come out. Yet once HD games start giving me pre-PS console goodness I will get one. So basically I'm still waiting even though there are some games out there that I'm watching very closely.

Seriously If you grew up with arcades before even the street fighter 2 days than you would know that the Wii is more of and arcade power house rather than a trampoline. Case and point the Wii is the reason why the arcades in japan are shutting down! The Wii is what gaming is while HD console are still waiting to figure out what they are. Since you like trampolines then I would have to say HD consoles reminds me of hi resolution trampoline pictures on a PC. Fun to look at but not much else right now.

After all of this I do realize the value HD consoles hold for those who own them. It's similar to how mac owners fell about their PCs. Like mac owners they are very vocal about their underdog platform.
actually id say ps3 is trying to be more like a PC. sinec you can even put an OS on it, download user-created content, and the works. the 360 forbids all of this and is more of a "center piece entertainment box" with all its downloadable crap. the reason it seems more like a pc is because its microsoft and that means it usually gets games that are exclusive to it and the PC.
 
Sovieto said:
actually id say ps3 is trying to be more like a PC. sinec you can even put an OS on it, download user-created content, and the works. the 360 forbids all of this and is more of a "center piece entertainment box" with all its downloadable crap. the reason it seems more like a pc is because its microsoft and that means it usually gets games that are exclusive to it and the PC.

letting you put an open source OS on it is like blowing smoke up your *$$. SONY is only letting you do this but it is not fully supported sort so really it's like buying a PC but some one telling you can load what you want but it will not be fully supported? WTF? Oh well, you are not winning any thing by tell me this.

So MS looks like they are gimping your PC/console experience by not letting you put an open source distribution on your box, yet it has been done every since the first xbox? OK... your point... wait till home you will be charged for all that stuff you though was free. MS is just being the bastard that they always been no surprise there. They are in the console race to stem the problem that consoles could cause in regards to PC sales which is coming with the next wave of consoles if certain things do come to the light.

Back to the whole PS3 pc thing..... They still do not let you use the RSX and it's never going to change this is SONY we are talking about and their keys to unlocking the system are tied up in that chip. The only user created content you can have so far is UT3 cooked levels and mods from the PC world. Who plays UT3 on the PS3 or the PS3? The truth is you should be able to just make this stuff on the console with out a PC. Seriously the PS3 is just a stand in for your PC upgrade and it is preforming the same way sales wise. PC game sales have always lagged way behind console sales. You really shouldn't play favorites because the only thing that separates the xbox from the PS3 is the RROD and LIVE. One plus and one minus. Developer are treating them both as one consoles which makes sense because they are basically a suto PC market due to the graphic level. Half way between direct x 9 and 10.

I was going to post some thing else about the console market but instead I'll let you crew on some links so you can see where this is all headed. I like nintendo but they are a very small part of the over all picture. Remember the Wii is what it is only because of what other companies wanted to sell to nintendo for a certain amount, hell same goes for all the other console makers. The people you need to watch are nvidia , ati, intel, and IBM. SONY would like you to believe they are the genius behind the cell... no a IBM guy was the architect for this chip, hell all the support stems from IBM... when was the last time SONY built a compiler for a chip design? SONY was simply an investor that spent too much money on hype and are hop[ing to ride this whole thing so they can make blue ray the next dvd rather than the next laser disk, remember those guys... yeah though not you get the point.

Well here you go.

http://www.news.com/8301-13579_3-9895892-37.html

http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2240432,00.asp

http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800441670_499495_NP_a09ffdce.HTM

http://www.techradar.com/news/compu...ds/do-new-cpus-threaten-nvidias-future-268329









Ok now you've read all of that, what do you think the whole one console thing is all about? Can intel make a better cell? Technically they already have since not even SONY/IBM did the job all the way. Intel just bought havok , off set project, and they are gunning for nvida and looking to profit off the short coming of the cell. MS will have a new system out by the time all of this is ready. intel is not joke just ask AMD. Even Ibm lost apple to the core duo yes it's in mac too and I'm not a fan of intel. So the current HD systems are a stop gag. Really things are just scraping the surface right now.

Things may come together much clearer by that time and the tech out now will be at Wii price levels due to die shrinks and the falling price of ram. If you are into chips then you know what a DSPs or pure card are and you have heard of bit boys.

The PS3 is about as good as a PC as an old over clocked(2ghz) K6 or a P4 or athlon MP with an RSX running your graphics. The only thing that is impressive on the PS3 to me is the RSX and thats an nvidia chip they don't make crap most of the time. Thats the only thing thats trying to keep that system a float. And actually the xbox is more powerful than the PS3... gears is still not going to be ported to the PS3. There are reason for that, you can blame it on what ever you like.
 
Back to the subject.

Read this for a glisp of whats to come.

http://www.news.com/8301-13579_3-9895892-37.html

If any one can make a chip that does what the cell does and actualy have it use old code also it's these guys. Yes the cell chip is their next target. The next xbox will come out in a the next few years and yes intel and MS are trying to make a one console future but it may not be what you think. They will try and replace IBM as the main chip supplier for game systems and believe me if you do use their chips ports will work the same way they do on a HP vs a dell or even a apple since they even use intel hardware.

Nintendo just proved what ever one already knew. Large masses of people will buy a $250 and electronic enthusiast will try to get their tech fix any way possible example HD sales.

I think MS will go with the high end but by that time a real HD GPU will be affordable and make $300 launch prices do-able. I don't think MS is going to go the way of the media app the way they did this last time yet wireless internet will become a bigger deal. Expect them to offer a casual build and a complete experience and possibly use the network to fix the what hard drive should I buy problem. Epic has already stated the next UT engine will focus solely on game consoles. Maybe this is going to be a fact due to PCs having the same type of CPUs as consoles?

Price wise lots of things become standard this way. Also too even intel admits that the current crop of CPUs are not ready for real physics and even ai that reacts realistically to physics is not really ready for game play situations. I'm not a fan of there intel but they do more showing than talk and are very very capable of doing what they talk about more so that SONY or IBM and thats saying a lot since they effectively took market share from both with macs using intel chips and SONYs struggle with the cell CPU while the p4s-core duos have dealt with multi-threading for a while. What is funny is if you know whats in the Wii then you would say that your next gen system will look a lot like it. A CPU/GPU chip with every thing on board thats not power hungry, yet can produce HD like visuals and actually handle real next gen AI and physics with out worrying about HD resolutions.

What will make the next nintendo system HD or direct 10 ready is going to be price. Thanks to Nintendo's success they could fight for a deal since they will obviously be able to do the volume in sales .

I'm not sure what SONY is going to do tech wise as the PS3's price was sort of out of character for the games devision yet I can see them going balls to the wall with the next system also. Blue ray will be in it of course even if U or MVDs or what ever are holding the shovel waiting to bury another sony format. I mean 50 gigs is a lot but we will have terrabyte disks for that format at the same price...LOL

You guys also realize nintendo will figure out how to make the GC or Wii a portable by then. Games have not even started to use the tech in direct x 10 yet so really we may not need an upgrade that bad. Just affordable chips and better console design so these chip don't fail. Yes I'm looking at you xboxy. New controller to tackle the PC experience on a console would be a plus also. Dual analogs work because the games really are not as hard as they should be. Slowing a game down so that the analogs players can play it says that your control system is broken.
 
Back off topic~ EDIT BUTTON?!?!

So anyway, kewlioz, maybe someday the PS3 will be priced reasonably, maybe someday...
 
I've had 2 or more consoles for every generation of video game consoles since the Atari. The only Nintendo I had before buying the Wii was the N64.

Had the Wii for 6 months now, and I must say its one of the best thing that happen to video games. Its something people always want to do in a video game, simulate something, and nothing comes closer than the feeling of doing it.

The best thing about it is, I no longer need to get a sore thumb and blistered fingers due to button mashing.

Even my wife plays video games now. For someone who has never done so, its speaks volumes and that is purely the reason why nintendo is number one.
 
All I am hoping for is that no one rushes there consoles and they work out any kinks with the system before releasing it and cheaper will be nice also Nintendo has always been around $200-$250 so there won't be much change there.
 
Dorkfish said:
Back off topic~ EDIT BUTTON?!?!

So anyway, kewlioz, maybe someday the PS3 will be priced reasonably, maybe someday...

If you read the post then you will see why they are seperate.
Why make a long post even longer? This is SONY man they tell retailers that being high priced is part of their appeal...LOL Nothing with SONY's name on it is cheap. The price cuts with the PS3 is them saving face.
 
LOL....next gen prcing i sont see getting resonable coz, well as next en going to have new hardware etc

and im not getting into this argument
 

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