100 Million Wii's By 2012?

[CantGetAWii]

Despite the family-friendly Wii console being less high-spec than its rivals, it still managed to be last Christmas's must-have gadget, says Richard Fletcher

They started queuing outside the Argos store in Coventry at 6.30am in the hope of picking up the year's must-have Christmas present. The object of their desires? The Nintendo Wii, a video-game console unlike any other. Four hours later, the queue outside Argos was 20 deep, despite the fact that the store had just one console in stock. On eBay, the elusive Wii, which sells on the high street from £180, was changing hands for as much as £1,000, while some desperate parents even crossed the Channel after reports that shops in Calais had stocks.

It wasn't only in the UK that Nintendo struggled to keep up with demand for the hit console. Despite desperate efforts to increase production and distribution around the world, a cottage industry of websites - including Wiitracker.com and wiialerts.com - has sprung up helping shoppers find a Wii.

On Thursday Nintendo will reveal to investors and analysts exactly how many consoles it managed to manufacture and ship around the world, alongside the Tokyo-based company's third-quarter results. The market is certainly expecting good news. In the past year, shares in Nintendo have soared more than 100 per cent. "It was an unprecedented winter shopping season for Nintendo," says Yuta Sakurai, an analyst at Nomura Securities.

But the unexpected popularity of the Wii has not only led to shortages from Coventry to Cincinnati. It has also shifted the balance of power in the $30bn-a-year videogame industry: after years of underperformance, Nintendo is challenging Sony and Microsoft for market leadership.

Only a few years ago Nintendo was an also-ran. The group's GameCube had proved a flop. Consumers had shunned it in favour of the Playstation 2 and Microsoft's Xbox, and serious questions were being asked about the company's future direction.

Haemorrhaging market share in the cut-throat games market, observers asked whether the company was going to go the way of other complacent Japanese companies. Mario, the animated plumber who symbolised Nintendo's dominance of the computer games market in the 1980s, had run out of tricks, they said.

The revival of Nintendo's fortunes have in large part been credited to one man, Satoru Iwata, who was appointed president in 2002, the first non-family related manager to lead the business.

Following the failure of the GameCube, Iwata concluded that the company could not win the bitter battle for the core gamer - 18-35 year-old men whose main interest is shoot-'em up games. Sony and Microsoft could concentrate on producing a new generation of high-specification consoles, but Nintendo would go a different way.

The result was the Wii: a console based around an innovative motion sensor which requires gamers to swing to hit the virtual tennis or golf ball (leading to thousands of minor accidents and injuries).

In terms of specification the Wii was not even in the same league as the PS3 or XBox 360, Sony and Microsoft's next-gen successors to the hugely popular PS2 and Xbox. Many in the industry wrote it off when it was launched - but the console has proved a huge hit with a new generation of gamers.

While the PS3 and Xbox 360 have focused on the traditional gaming market, the Wii has cannily focused on families rather than hardcore gamers.

Terry Duddy, chief executive of Argos parent Home Retail Group, says that the Wii "has become a family entertainment product". The lack of a traditional toy in the retailer's top 20 sellers this Chrstmas is, he suggests, largely the result of the Wii's popularity with families.

"The Wii is exploring new territory," adds Lisa Morgan, chief executive of UK-based games retailer Game Group. "Wii has not been selling to your typical hardcore gamer. There have been a lot more family purchases." Game was one of the few retailers to report a bumper Christmas last week - thanks to the popularity of Nintendo's consoles.

So where now for the company that has been dubbed the "Apple of the videogame world" ?

Late last year Iwata announce plans to develop the Wii's internet connectivity, giving it new channels and access to more downloads. Carl Gressum, an analyst at Ovum, believes that sorting out the production should be one of the key priorities. "Given the lower technical specifications of the Nintendo Wii it is interesting to note the console is still severely supply-constrained," he says.

Developing new games is also key, he adds. "Nintendo needs to keep up the game innovation around the interface otherwise the novelty factor could wear off."

Sakuri at Nomura has no doubts about the long-term popularity of the console. He believes that by 2012 Nintendo could have sold 100m Wii's around the world.

"Around 80 per cent of Wii consoles are in family living rooms. The company has managed to embed the system in people's lifestyles."

Source

 

[SensesFail]

100 million? lol

 

[Dan.Skater]

wow
that means 1.5 ppl in the world would have a wii!

 

[laderer5]

gees, 100 million??? How much is Ninty making off this...:crazy:

 

[sagema]

I already estimated they would sell 50 million by the end of 2008. If they price drop and increase production to 3-4 million units before June. If...

According to my estimations Nintendo will break 100 million before 2011. Possibly even 2010. A major factor will be the US economic collapse in 2009. How bad the collapse is will determine future sales. Why do you think Sony's so desperate to continue lowering the price of the PS3 at a massive loss?

 

[T3kNi9e]

wow
that means 1.5 ppl in the world would have a wii!

What? Are you saying there's less than 100 million people in the world?

PS2 sold 120 million. Its possible for Wii could do it, but for some reason I doubt it. Im thinking it will get close to a 100 mill but I dont think it will pass it.

 

[T3kNi9e]

I already estimated they would sell 50 million by the end of 2008. If they price drop and increase production to 3-4 million units before June. If...

According to my estimations Nintendo will break 100 million before 2011. Possibly even 2010. A major factor will be the US economic collapse in 2009. How bad the collapse is will determine future sales. Why do you think Sony's so desperate to continue lowering the price of the PS3 at a massive loss?

What do you mean? I know US is having economy problems and that the dollar is losing value. So if the economy "collapses" wouldn't that be a bad thing?

When it comes to this subject I have no idea, I hated Economy in High School.

 

[jimbo]

wow
that means 1.5 ppl in the world would have a wii!

that means theres 150 million peopl alive lol.

and i think every1 had at least 2 ps2's i had 2.my couson had 4 just because they broke. i think the wiis more reliale but im not sure

 

[wezeles]

The Wii is quickly becomming the same phenomenon that Ps2 was with a price that is acctually less than ps2 intial launch, and selling faster at the start. They have the same supply issue ps2 did with launch and with the "improvement" of gameplay, much as the improvement of grahics with the ps2, it has drawn in a whole new crowd of casual gamer to the gaming world.

It will keep up if not beat the ps2 sales numbers, no doubt in my mind, aslong as nintendo does stick it out and doesnt jump to release a new system before that time they will keep pace if not get ahead of the ps2 having sold 100 million by 5 years and if they stick it out 7 years like the ps2 they will sell 120 or more by that time.

"although ps2 had the nasty breaking issue and that boosted sales numbers, not new sales but replacements" So nintendo keeping pace with ps2 with a reliable console itself, would be beating the ps2 with no repeat sales in my mind.

Xbox 360 will do well, they will keep getting record sales numbers maybe even catch up to the Wii on and off with some of there hott title drops.
Not sure about ps3 they will get better with time and price im sure, it will be considered good sales by the gaming world when its done, but not the same sales numbers they are use to with the ps2. Thats the price you have to pay for "forced" inovation.

Over all i think it will be a record setting Gen for everyone in gaming not just Nintendo.

 

[Spinty]

If current sales continued, then yes 100M Wiis would sell. However it is hard to tell whether or not the demand for them is slowing down or growing seeing as they are still sold out virtually everywhere. So untill Nintendo ramps up production, it will be impossible to even estimate how many Wiis will be sold. I think they can keep momemtum, if like the article says they are improving their online capabilities at the same time as bringing out great games for online i.e. Mario sports titles.

 

[SensesFail]

I already estimated they would sell 50 million by the end of 2008. If they price drop and increase production to 3-4 million units before June. If...

According to my estimations Nintendo will break 100 million before 2011. Possibly even 2010. A major factor will be the US economic collapse in 2009. How bad the collapse is will determine future sales. Why do you think Sony's so desperate to continue lowering the price of the PS3 at a massive loss?

lol your not an analyst dude, thats not credible at all.

PS2 has had like seven years i beleive to sell that many systems. their claiming wii will do it in five? it does seem do-able considering the popularity. i guess the PS2 got the casual gamers vote last gen so idn.. i just think it will fade out in the next two years.

 

[solidkirby]

Though, the Wii is selling a lot, I doubt it's going to pass the PS2 in sales.
The damn thing (PS2) is still selling right now.

For the Wii to do this, it would have to live past its life cycle.
I just don't think it's going to do that. I don't think Nintendo would rely on last gen tech like Sony is.

 

[wezeles]

lol your not an analyst dude, thats not credible at all.

PS2 has had like seven years i beleive to sell that many systems. their claiming wii will do it in five? it does seem do-able considering the popularity. i guess the PS2 got the casual gamers vote last gen so idn.. i just think it will fade out in the next two years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2

ps2 sold 100 million within 5 years of launch 120 after 7 years...
Will they outsell the ps2 overall? maybe not, depends if there next system is like the ps3 and not making it in the market, then they will still need previous gen sales to stay afloat like Sony.

But it will last 5 years.
With the popularity of the Wii and the larger gaming market now because of the Wii itself its more than capable of reaching 100 million in 5 years same as the ps2... although who knows how many ps2's were replacements because of breakdowns...

still the Wii is more than able to hit that number, aslong as nintendo meets manufacturing demands and keeps comming out with hit products among the casual and hardcore its not a strech to think they will.

 

[T3kNi9e]

Wii sold around 19.5 million by the end of 2007 So I STRONGLY DOUBT Wii will sell another 19.5 by the end of 2008. No console ever sells the same amount the next year because demand drops. Most people who really wants it already have it. So sales will drop. In order for Wii to get 100mill in 5 years they have to sell 20 mill per year. So far they didnt meet the first years quota to get 100mill. This is why I doubt they can get 100mill by 2012. I think they will come close, but not 100mill. I do think Wii is more reliable than the PS2, its Nintendo! Their consoles never break down while PS2 had as much problems as the 360. So without the "my console broke, I need another one" factor, its going to be harder for Wii than the PS2.

 

[link125]

&*%#@*&#@^%&

woah ninty getting the money big time from the wii